Turner’s Take Weekly | WASDE PODCAST | USDA Report Bearish

NEW PODCAST | I just released a special WASDE podcast that goes over my thoughts on the WASDE.  Click here to listen to Turner’s Take Podcast: September 12, 2017 | USDA Sept WASDE Bearish

CORN | Yields were HIGHER and not lower as the trade expected.  Ending stocks increased to over 2.3 billion and Dec Corn was down 12 cents at one point testing $3.45.  Some traders think we have a double bottom in corn.  The close strong as corn made up some losses and closed above $3.50.  I think we are going to chop around and I still like selling straddles.  I also like playing the range in corn.  We could see lower prices when harvest gets in full swing but you also have to wonder how many more short position the funds can add.  Do they really want to go record short at these prices with a 2.3 billion carryout.  How much reward is left in that trade if Dec Corn is trading $3.45?

$3.45 should provide significant support for Dec Corn but if harvest pressure is strong we could trade in the $3.30s.  Any rallies to $3.70 in dec corn will be met with very strong resistance.

SOYBEANS | Old crop was bullish and new crop was bearish. Overall the report was mildly bearish for soybeans.  The big story is the pod weights – a record – and it lead the USDA to increase the yield to 49.9.  WOW!  Soybeans are going to be a tough trade over the next couple of weeks. Traders are going to focus heavily on yield reports in the field to confirm the record pod weights.  STAY TUNED!

WHEAT | Minneapolis wheat was disappointing.   The USDA was able to increase ending stocks by increasing imports and decreasing exports.  The USDA is basically saying our HRS wheat export demand will go to Europe and if US HRS wheat prices are high enough it will make sense for European and/or South American wheat to make it to the US market.  This happened in soybeans a few years ago. At some point US soybeans got so high that it made sense to ship South American beans to the US and the SAM + Shipping price was equal to the higher US price.  If the market can do the same thing with the HRS shortage then that bull story is going to be limited.

Click Here for a PDF of the USDA’s Sept 2017 WASDE Report


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