Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are showing fractional gains at midday. This morning's USDA Export Inspections report showed 1.11 MMT of corn for exports during the week of July 13. That is 9.77% larger than the previous week but 16.5% smaller than this time last year. Trade ideas had been around 950,000 MT. Analysts are expecting the Crop Progress report to present conditions steady to lower compared with last week's 65%. On the other hand, forecasts show northern IA and southern MN getting 2-3 inches of rain this week. Friday’s CTFC data shows managed money switched from net short to a net long position of 100,964 contracts in corn futures and options trading as of last Tuesday. They likely exited a chunk of those positions on Thursday. China's Ag Ministry on Monday posted notice they've approved the import of two additional GMO crops: Monsanto's Roundup ready brand corn and Syngenta's Agrisure Duracade brand corn. .

Sep 17 Corn is at $3.77, up 3/4 cent,

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.89 3/4, up 1/4 cent,

Mar 18 Corn is at $4.00 1/4, unch ,

May 18 Corn is at $4.05 3/4, up 3/4 cent



Soybean futures are 2 to 3 cents lower after higher overnight trade faded on daytime volume. .... Front month soy meal is down $2.20/ton, and Aug 17 soy oil is down 8 points. The USDA reported that 285,972 MT of soybeans were exported during the week ending July 13, 39.06% smaller than a week ago and 29.39% below that week in 2016. This morning's NOPA report, showed June crush well below expectations at 138.074 million bushels, which is a 4.81% drop over June 2016 and 7.49% lower than May. Soy oil stocks for June 30 were seen at 1.703 billion pounds, slightly lower than what analysts had in mind. Stocks were down 2.31% from May and 14.21% lower yr/yr. Soybean condition ratings are expected to be steady to lower in this week's edition of the Crop Progress report. As with corn, spec funds switched their position from short to long in soybean futures and options trading ahead of the crop report. They held a net long position of 19,048 contracts on July 11. That was a jump of 89,264 contracts in the reporting week ending last Tuesday.

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $9.86 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $9.90, down 2 3/4 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.98 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans are at $10.07 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents,

Aug 17 Soybean Meal is at $321.50, down $2.20

Aug 17 Soybean Oil is at $33.16, down $0.08



Wheat futures are .up as much as 10 cents in MPLS spring wheat, with reports of widespread baling /abandonment. The other markets are lower. Wheat export inspections for last week were reported at 578,672 MT, a 7.95 % increase over last week and 29.57% above last year. Taiwan is seeking 105,150 MT of US wheat, with Wednesday the deadline for the tender. In CBT wheat futures and options, spec traders added 26,682 contracts to their CFTC net long position, taking it to +44,685 contracts ahead of the USDA reports. Managed money added 18,185 contracts to their net long position in KC wheat futures and options. Their net long position was at 73,111 contracts last Tuesday. The Australian wheat crop is expected by analysts in country to be well below the USDA projection of 23.5 MMT. Reports are showing that the major growing regions of the country are experiencing less than half the typical rainfall totals.

Sep 17 CBOT Wheat is at $5.07 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 KCBT Wheat is at $5.07 1/2, down 6 cents,

Sep 17 MGEX Wheat is at $7.68 1/4, up 10 1/4 cents



Live cattle futures are 47 lower to 55 higher at midday. Feeder futures are up another $1.07 to $1.30. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1 on July 13 to $150.74. Wholesale beef prices were higher in the Monday morning report, with choice boxes up 57 cents at $209.92. Select was $1.12 higher, with an average of $196.54. Last week's estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter was 637,000 head, 39,000 above the same week last year. Cash cattle sales last week ranged from $119 to $120 across most regions. Managed money traders backed off their net long position in live cattle futures and options to a net position of +114,911 contracts in the CFTC COT report.

Aug 17 Cattle are at $117.325, down $0.475,

Oct 17 Cattle are at $118.925, up $0.350,

Dec 17 Cattle are at $119.550, up $0.550,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle are at $155.350, up $1.075

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle are at $155.325, up $1.250

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle are at $154.050, up $1.300



Lean hog futures are up 70 to 80 cents, excluding the expiring July futures which need to stick close to where they think the index will be. The CME Lean Hog Index for 7/13 was 6 cents lower than the previous day at $92.78. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 80 cents higher in the Monday morning report, with a weighted average of $105.28. The loin and picnic primals were sharply lower, as bellies were $8.37 higher at $213.43. The national base hog carcass price was 78 cents lower with a weighted average of $85.61 in this morning's report. Weekly FI hog slaughter was estimated at 2,202,000 head, 81,000 more than the same week in 2016. Spec traders added to their net long position in lean hogs futures and options for the 11thweek in a row to 84,189 contracts as of Tuesday July 11.

Jul 17 Hogs are at $92.425, down $0.175,

Aug 17 Hogs are at $80.750, up $0.850

Oct 17 Hogs are at $67.875, up $0.700



Cotton futures are 90 to 130 points higher at midday. The weekly AWP is 65.47 cents/lb, an increase of 14 points from the previous week. The CFTC reported cotton futures and options spec traders had reduced their net long position to 22,510 contracts in the COT report. The Cotlook A index for July 14 was at 82.20 cents/lb, down 1 cent from the previous day. China offered 30,100 MT of cotton at an auction of state reserves on Monday, as 20,700 MT of that were sold.

Oct 17 Cotton is at 68.15, up 97 points,

Dec 17 Cotton is at 67.78, up 120 points

Mar 18 Cotton is at 67.34, up 123 points

May 18 Cotton is at 68.040, up 133 points






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
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