Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures came back to show gains of 4 to 6 3/4 cents on profit taking to end the week. Sep corn lost 4.14% since last Friday, as July expired at $3.65 1/4. According to trade reports, Planalytics now projects the US corn yield at 165.3 bpa, down 1.3 bpa from their previous estimate. Friday’s CTFC data shows managed money making a huge shift of 147,679 contracts for the week ending July 11. Their position switched from net short to a net long position of 100,964 contracts in corn futures and options trading. China sold an additional 2.6 MMT of 2014 corn in an auction of state reserves that had 2.99 MMT of corn offered on Friday.

Jul 17 Corn closed at $3.65 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

Sep 17 Corn closed at $3.76 1/4, up 6 1/2 cents,

Dec 17 Corn closed at $3.89 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents

Mar 18 Corn closed at $4.00 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents

Soybean futures closed Friday trade with most contracts 13 1/2 to 14 1/2 cents higher, as July expired at $9.85 1/4. New front month Aug was down 7.14% over the week. July 17 soy meal expired $5.50 higher at $322.30, as soy oil was up 5 points to finish at 33.06. As anticipated, the USDA reported private export sales of 1.3 MMT to China for the 17/18 marketing year on Friday through their daily system. This comes a day after a Chinese delegation to the US agreed to purchase 12.53 MMT of soybeans and is undoubtedly part of that frame agreement. As with corn, spec funds switched their position from short to long in soybean futures and options trading ahead of the crop report. They held a net long position of 19,048 contracts on July 11. They made a jump of 89,264 contracts in the reporting week ending last Tuesday. Ahead of Monday’s NOPA report, analysts are expecting June crush at 143.093 million bushels, as soy oil stocks for June 30 are seen at 1.714 billion pounds.

Jul 17 Soybeans closed at $9.85 1/4, up 12 3/4 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans closed at $9.89, up 13 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans closed at $9.92 3/4, up 14 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $10.10 1/4, up 14 1/4 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal closed at $322.30, up $5.50,

Jul 17 Soybean Oil closed at $33.06, up $0.05

Wheat futures settled mixed on Friday, after trading higher most of the day. KC and CBT were lower in most contracts, as MPLS was steady to 8 1/2 cents higher. In KC, the Sept contract was down 5.43% on the week, as MPLS and CBT Sept contracts were down 1.2% and 1.14%. In CBT wheat futures and options trading, spec traders added 26,682 contracts to their net long position, now at 44,685 contracts. Managed money added 18,185 contracts to their net long position in KC wheat futures and options. Their reported net long position was at 73,111 contracts on Tuesday. Argentina’s wheat harvest is 79.1% complete, according to the BAGE. They also lowered their planting acreage number to 13.34 million acres, from 13.59 million acres.

Sep 17 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.10 3/4, down 1 cent,

Sep 17 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.13 1/2, down 2 cents,

Sep 17 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.58, up 8 1/2 cents

Live cattle futures were 37.5 to 77.5 cents higher in most contracts on Friday, as the Aug contract was up 2.64% on stronger cash trade this week. Feeder cattle futures were up $1.10 to $2.575 to end the week that saw Aug climb 6.38% higher. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1 on July 13 to $150.74. Wholesale beef prices were lower in the Friday afternoon report, with choice boxes down 50 cents at $209.35. Select was $1.84 lower, with an average of $195.42. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter is 637,000 head including Saturday, 39,000 above the same week last year. Cash sales this week ranged from $119 to $120 across most regions. Managed money traders backed off their net long position in live cattle futures and options to a net position of +114,911 contracts in this week’s CFTC COT report.

Aug 17 Cattle closed at $117.800, up $0.375,

Oct 17 Cattle closed at $118.575, up $0.750,

Dec 17 Cattle closed at $119.000, up $0.775,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $154.275, up $1.250

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $154.075, up $1.100

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $152.750, up $1.250

Lean hog futures closed Friday trade with 15 cent to $2.625 losses, ahead of July’s expiration. July futures expire on Monday and need to stick close to where they think the index will be. The CME Lean Hog Index for 7/12 was 9 cents higher than the previous day at $92.84. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 81 cents higher in the Friday afternoon report, with a weighted average of $104.48. The butt and belly primal were both reported lower, with the Rib down $6.66. The national base hog carcass price was 40 cents lower with a weighted average of $86.40 in this afternoon’s report. FI hog slaughter through Saturday is estimated at 2,202,000 head, 81,000 more than the same week in 2016. Spec traders added to their net long position in lean hogs futures and options for the 11th week in a row to 84,189 contracts as of Tuesday July 11.

Jul 17 Hogs closed at $92.600, down $0.150,

Aug 17 Hogs closed at $79.900, down $2.625

Oct 17 Hogs closed at $67.175, down $2.150

Cotton futures saw mixed trade on Friday, as the front months were 21 to 64 points in the green with back months lower. The lightly traded Oct contract lost 3.68% on the week. The new AWP 65.47 cents/lb, an increase of 14 points from the previous week. The CFTC reported cotton futures and options spec traders lowering their net long position to 22,510 contracts in this week’s COT report. Friday saw sales of 18,700 MT of cotton from state reserves in China, as 29,900 MT were offered. The Cotlook A index for July 13 was down 50 points to 83.20 cents/lb.

Oct 17 Cotton closed at 67.180, up 64 points,

Dec 17 Cotton closed at 66.580, up 21 points

May 18 Cotton closed at 66.710, down 4 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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