Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are up 5 to 5 1/4 cents on profit taking, after an ugly day on Thursday. Total corn export commitments are now just 16.37% above last year at this point. The USDA is projecting 2.225 billion bushels in exports for 2016/17. Total commitments are now 99% of that number, vs. 103% last year and the average of 102%. According to trade reports, Planalytics now projects the US corn yield at 165.3 bpa, down 1.3 bpa from their previous estimate. China sold an additional 2.6 MMT of 2014 corn in an auction of state reserves that had 2.99 MMT of corn offered on Friday. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that 55.5% of the country’s corn crop has been harvested, just 2.5% higher than the previous week. Exportable supplies are still adequate.

Jul 17 Corn is at $3.69, up 8 cents,

Sep 17 Corn is at $3.75, up 5 1/4 cents,

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.88, up 5 cents

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.98 1/2, up 5 cents



Soybean futures are trading 12 1/4 to 14 1/2 cents higher on Friday as the shorts are taking profits ahead of the weekend. Aug 17 soy meal is $5.30 in the green, as soy oil is up 12 points in the Aug contract. As anticipated, the USDA reported a private export sales of 1.3 MMT to China for the 17/18 marketing year on Friday through their daily system. This comes a day after a Chinese delegation to the US agreed to purchase 12.53 MMT of soybeans and is undoubtedly part of that frame agreement. Ahead of Monday’s NOPA report, analysts are expecting June crush at 143.093 million bushels, as soy oil stocks for June 30 are seen at 1.714 billion pounds. Since the USDA raised their export projection for 16/17 50 mbu to 2,10 bbu, total commitments have now hit 105% of that number, while typically they are at 102%. Current year total export commitments for soybeans are now 16.1% larger than this week last year.

Jul 17 Soybeans are at $9.87, up 14 1/2 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $9.87 1/4, up 11 3/4 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $9.91, up 12 1/4 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $10.00, up 12 1/2 cents,

Aug 17 Soybean Meal is at $323.20, up $5.30

Aug 17 Soybean Oil is at $33.19, up $0.12



Wheat futures are mostly higher at midday, as the July contracts are showing no volume ahead of this afternoon’s expiration. MPLS is the strongest, up 10 to 17 cents higher, with KC and CHI showing fractional gains. In July’s WASDE report, the USDA lowered their export projection 25 mbu to 975 mbu. Total commitments are now 33% of that, matching the average pace. Argentina’s wheat harvest is 79.1% complete, according to the BAGE. They also lowered their planting acreage number to 13.34 million acres, from 13.59 million acres.

Sep 17 CBOT Wheat is at $5.12 1/2, up 3/4 cent,

Sep 17 KCBT Wheat is at $5.15 3/4, up 1/4 cent,

Sep 17 MGEX Wheat is at $7.66 1/2, up 17 cents



Live cattle futures are 22.5 to 50 cents higher in the front months. Feeder cattle futures are up 50 to 65 cents at midday. The CME feeder cattle index rose $2.02 on July 12 to $150.74. Wholesale beef prices were lower in the Friday morning report, with choice boxes down 60 cents at $209.25. Select was $1.86 lower, with an average of $195.40. Estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter was 475,000 head through Thursday, 27,000 above the same week last year. A few cash cattle sales @ $120 were reported for Thursday, as most regions are relatively calm thus far today. Total beef export commitments YTD are 10.5% larger than last year at this time.

Aug 17 Cattle are at $117.650, up $0.225,

Oct 17 Cattle are at $118.300, up $0.475,

Dec 17 Cattle are at $118.725, up $0.500,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle are at $153.600, up $0.575

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle are at $153.475, up $0.500

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle are at $152.150, up $0.650



Lean hog futures are showing losses of 35 to $1.575 here on Friday. July futures expire on Monday and need to stick close to where they think the index will be. The CME Lean Hog Index for 7/12 was 9 cents higher than the previous day at $92.84. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.20 higher in the Friday morning report, with a weighted average of $104.87. The rib and belly primal were both reported lower. The national base hog carcass price was 54 cents lower with a weighted average of $86.26 in this morning’s report. FI hog slaughter through Thursday was estimated at 1,754,000 head, 62,000 more than last year at this point. Pork export commitments YTD are 7.3% above this time last year.

Jul 17 Hogs are at $92.400, down $0.350,

Aug 17 Hogs are at $80.950, down $1.575

Oct 17 Hogs are at $68.225, down $1.100



Cotton futures are trading 7 to 35 points higher in the front months, with back months lower as Oct is 121 points higher on low trade. The new AWP , good through next Thursday is 65.47 cents/lb, an increase of 14 points since the previous week. Total export commitments for all upland cotton have reached 63.4% above a year ago, with just under 4 reporting weeks left for the Marketing year. As a percent of the USDA projection, total export commitments are 108%, above the last year and the average of 106% for this date. Friday saw sales of 18,700 MT of cotton from state reserves in China, as 29,900 MT were offered. The Cotlook A index for July 13 was down 50 points to 83.20 cents/lb.

Oct 17 Cotton is at 67.75, up 121 points,

Dec 17 Cotton is at 66.74, up 37 points

Mar 18 Cotton is at 66.23, up 7 points

May 18 Cotton is at 66.550, down 20 points






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
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E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
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