Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures finished Thursday trade with losses of 15 to 15 3/4 cents in the front months. This morning, the USDA reported old crop corn export sales of just 161,048 MT for the week of July 6, 14.81% larger than last week but still 75.88% lower than last year. New crop sales picked up to 279,660 MT, as they were 275% above the previous week but 59.34% smaller than the same week in 2016. Export shipments came in at 880,507 MT, which was off last week’s mark by 20.6% and down 29.14% from the previous year. China sold 628,009 MT of corn in an auction of state reserves, which saw 1.99 MMT of 2013 corn offered on Thursday. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that 55.5% of the country’s corn crop has been harvested, just 2.5% higher than the previous week. Exportable supplies are still adequate.

Jul 17 Corn closed at $3.61, down 15 1/4 cents,

Sep 17 Corn closed at $3.69 3/4, down 15 3/4 cents,

Dec 17 Corn closed at $3.83, down 15 3/4 cents

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.93 1/2, down 15 cents

Soybean futures fell 39 1/2 to 46 cents in most contracts on Thursday, as a Chinese agreement to purchase US beans had little impact.July 17 soy meal was $17.60 the red, as soy oil dropped 42 points in the front month. The USDA indicated 16/17 soybean export sales of 228,041 MT for the week of July 6, with new crop sales at 455,000 MT. Total sales were 55.7% larger than a week ago but 25% lower than last year. Weekly export shipments were reported at 407,368 MT, 46.2% above the previous week and 2.2% higher than the same week in 2016. Soy meal sales came in at 140,715 MT, with most of that coming from 17/18 sales. That was 75.5% larger than last week but 24.8% lower than this time last year. Meal exports came in at 128,805 MT, behind weeks previous. Soy oil sales were at 16,164 for 16/17, more than double last week but 10.5% behind last year. Shipments were just 7,398 MT. Chinese customs data shows that the country imported 44.81 MT during the first half of the year, a 14.2% increase yr/yr. A Chinese delegation to the US agreed to purchase 12.53 MMT of soybeans in a frame contract. Typically these agreements are followed by a few big sales revealed under the daily reporting system, with the rest of the business coming along later.

Jul 17 Soybeans closed at $9.72 1/2, down 44 1/4 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans closed at $9.75 1/2, down 45 1/4 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans closed at $9.78 3/4, down 46 1/2 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.96, down 46 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal closed at $316.80, down $17.60,

Wheat futures closed the day sharply lower, as KC and CBT flirted with limit losses. Thursday morning’s Export sales report for 17/18 was 357,702 MT, on the lower side of expectations. Total sales were 12.6% larger than last year but 4.7% behind last week. The USDA also reported 475,310 MT of wheat was exported during the week of July 6, 39.3% above last year. In their weekly tender, Japan purchased 62,900 MT of US wheat, with the other 30,865 MT coming from Australia. The EU wheat crop is estimated at 140.7 MMT by analysts from Strategie Grains, down 0.9MM from their previous report as hot and dry weather persists.

Sep 17 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.11 3/4, down 25 1/4 cents,

Sep 17 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.15 1/2, down 28 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.49 1/2, down 33 1/4 cents

Live cattle futures were mixed on Thursday, with most front contracts steady to lower. Feeder cattle futures posted gains of 85 cents to $2.05, as corn prices were supportive. The CME feeder cattle index rose $2.02 on July 12 to $150.74. Wholesale beef prices were again sharply lower in the Thursday afternoon report, with choice boxes down $2.84 at $209.85. Select was $1.47 lower, with an average of $197.26. Estimated FI cattle slaughter was 475,000 head through Thursday, 27,000 above the same week last year. A few cash sales of $120 were reported for Thursday. There were 12,489 MT of beef export sales for 2017 reported in this morning’s export sales report, down 26.7% from last week and just 2.2% from the same time last year. Beef export shipments of 11,680 MT were announced, 1.7% above last year but 21.5% below a week ago.

Aug 17 Cattle closed at $117.425, down $0.450,

Oct 17 Cattle closed at $117.825, unch,

Dec 17 Cattle closed at $118.225, down $0.100,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $153.025, up $1.275

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $152.975, up $1.300

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $151.500, up $1.500

Lean hog futures ended the day with the front months a dime lower to 77 cents higher. The CME Lean Hog Index for 7/11 was 16 cents higher than the previous day at $92.75. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $2.15 lower in the Thursday afternoon report, with a weighted average of $103.67. The loin was the only cut reported higher, as the rib primal was down $12.32. The national base hog carcass price was 6 cents lower with a weighted average of $86.78 in this afternoon’s report. FI hog slaughter through Thursday was estimated at 1,754,000 head, 62,000 more than last year at this point. Pork export sales for 2017 came in at a marketing year low of 9,687 MT for the week of July 6, but were still 56.7% larger than that week last year. Shipments came in at 14,896 MT.

Jul 17 Hogs closed at $92.750, up $0.175,

Aug 17 Hogs closed at $82.525, down $0.100

Cotton futures settled mostly 44 to 94 points lower, with thinly traded Oct down 159 points. In this morning’s export sales report, the USDA showed old crop upland cotton export sales of just 12,980 RB, a marketing year low and well shy of last year’s and the previous week’s mark. New crop sales also showed a drop wk/wk to 152,635 RB, but were still 34.3% larger than last year. All upland cotton shipments of 195,281 RB were reported, a 31.36% rise over last year but down 35.44% from a week ago. The Cotlook A index for July 12 was up 25 points to 83.70 cents/lb.

Oct 17 Cotton closed at 66.540, down 159 points,

Dec 17 Cotton closed at 66.370, down 90 points

May 18 Cotton closed at 66.750, down 66 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

First you raise it, then you market it!  Check out the full Brugler advisory service with this special Harvest 2Fer offer at


Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.