Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are showing 11 to 13 1/4 cent losses in the nearby contracts at midday. This morning, the USDA reported old crop corn export sales of just 161,048 MT for the week of July 6, 14.81% larger than last week but still 75.88% lower than last year. New crop sales picked up to 279,660 MT, as they were 275% above the previous week but 59.34% smaller than the same week in 2016. The USDA increase their 16/17 US ending stocks projection to 2.37 bbu yesterday, as Feed and Residual was lowered 75 mbu. The USDA lowered the average farm price estimate 10 cents to a range of $2.90-$3.70. A band of shower activity from NE to OH this morning is not improving the bulls case. China sold 628,009 MT of corn in an auction of state reserves, which saw 1.99 MMT of 2013 corn offered on Thursday.

Jul 17 Corn is at $3.65 1/4, down 11 cents,

Sep 17 Corn is at $3.72 1/4, down 13 1/4 cents,

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.85 3/4, down 13 cents

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.96, down 12 1/2 cents

Soybean futures are trading sharply lower on Wednesday, as most front months are down 35 3/4 to 37 1/4 cents.July 17 soy meal is $14.30 in the red, as soy oil is 35 points lower in the front month. The USDA indicated 16/17 soybean export sales of 228,041 MT for the week of July 6, with new crop sales blowing expectations out of the water for a change at 455,000 MT. Total sales were 55.7% larger than a week ago but are still 25% lower than last year. Soy meal sales came in at 140,715 MT, with most of that coming from 17/18 sales. That was 75.5% larger than last week but 24.8% lower than this time last year. Soy oil sales were at 16,164 for 16/17, more than double last week but 10.5% behind last year. The US and World Supply and Demand report showed 17/18 US ending stocks shifting 35 mbu lower to 460 mbu with less carryover from 16/17. US ending stocks from 16/17 were lowered via a 50 mbu increase in exports. Chinese customs data shows that the country imported 44.81 MT during the first half of the year, a 14.2% increase yr/yr.

Jul 17 Soybeans are at $9.91 1/2, down 25 1/4 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $9.85, down 35 3/4 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $9.88 1/2, down 36 3/4 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.96 3/4, down 37 1/4 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal is at $320.10, down $14.30

Jul 17 Soybean Oil is at $33.08, down $0.35

Wheat futures are mostly 24 1/2 to 28 cents lower in the Sept contracts at midday. The soon to expire July contracts are illiquid and not included in the above ranges. Thursday morning’s Export sales report showed sales for 17/18 of 357,702 MT, on the lower side of expectations. Total sales were 12.6% larger than last year but 4.7% behind last week. US 2017/18 wheat ending stocks increased yesterday, caused by lower usage and exports. The average US farm price for 17/18 was raised a huge 50 cents per bushel to a range of $4.40-$5.20. This is the spring wheat influence. In their weekly tender, Japan purchased 62,900 MT of US wheat, with the other 30,865 MT coming from Australia. The EU wheat crop is estimated at 140.7 MMT by analysts from Strategie Grains, down 0.9MM from their previous report as hot and dry weather persists.

Sep 17 CBOT Wheat is at $5.12 1/2, down 24 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 KCBT Wheat is at $5.17 1/2, down 26 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 MGEX Wheat is at $7.54 3/4, down 28 cents

Live cattle futures are down a dime to 20 cents in the nearby contracts. Feeder cattle futures are showing gains of $1.45 to $1.55 due to weakness in the grains. The CME feeder cattle index was down 44 cents on July 11 at $148.72. Wholesale beef prices were again lower in the Thursday morning report, with choice boxes down $2.12 at $210.57. Select was 43 cents lower, with an average of $198.30. Estimated FI cattle slaughter was 357,000 head through Wednesday, 16,000 above the same week last year. A few cash sales of $120 have been reported so far today. There were 12,489 MT of beef export sales for 2017 reported in this morning’s export sales report, down 26.7% from last week and just 2.2% from the same time last year.

Aug 17 Cattle are at $117.675, down $0.200,

Oct 17 Cattle are at $117.725, down $0.100,

Dec 17 Cattle are at $118.150, down $0.175,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle are at $153.200, up $1.450

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle are at $153.225, up $1.550

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle are at $151.500, up $1.500

Lean hog futures are 12.5 to 35 cents higher at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index for 7/11 was 16 cents higher than the previous day at $92.75. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $2.27 lower in the Thursday morning report, with a weighted average of $103.55. All cuts were reported lower, as the rib primal was down $12.13. The national base hog carcass price was 58 cents lower with a weighted average of $86.26 in this morning’s report. FI hog slaughter through Wednesday was estimated at 1,314,000 head, 54,000 more than last year at this point. Pork export sales for 2017 came in at a marketing year low of 9,687 MT for the week of July 6, but were still 56.7% larger than that week last year.

Jul 17 Hogs are at $92.700, up $0.125,

Aug 17 Hogs are at $82.800, up $0.175

Oct 17 Hogs are at $69.625, up $0.350

Cotton futures are trading 64 to 79 points lower at the moment. In this morning’s export sales report, the USDA showed old crop upland cotton export sales of just 12,980 RB, a marketing year low and well shy of last year’s and the previous week’s mark. New crop sales also showed a drop wk/wk to 152,635 RB, but were still 34.3% larger than last year. The USDA lowered the top of the average farm price range 6 cents to 54-68 cents/lb. The midpoint is 61.00. The Cotlook A index for July 12 was up 25 points to 83.70 cents/lb.

Oct 17 Cotton is at 67.41, down 72 points,

Dec 17 Cotton is at 66.48, down 79 points

Mar 18 Cotton is at 66.21, down 73 points

May 18 Cotton is at 66.770, down 64 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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