AgriCharts Market Commentary

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.

Corn

Corn futures ended the Monday session with most contracts 1 to 2 cents in the red. The USDA reported a private export sale of 213,372 MT to Mexico this morning, with the sale split between 2018/19 (142,248 MT) and 19/20 (71,124 MT). This morning’s Export Inspections report for the week of August 9 saw 1.262 MMT of corn shipped. That was slightly lower than the previous week, but 65.75% larger than the same week last year. Total YTD exports are lagging last year by just 0.97%. The afternoon Crop Progress report indicated that 73% of the US corn crop was in the dough stage as of Sunday, with 26% dented vs. the 13% average. Condition ratings were down 1% in the gd/ex categories to 70%, as the Brugler500 Index dropped 2 to 377. The USDA’s new crop export projection was increased 125 mbu to 2.35 bbu, with the average farm price dropping 20 cents to $3.10-4.10 on Friday. FSA monthly data showed that producers enrolled 918,213 acres in prevent plant for corn as of August 1, which was slightly less than last year (~950 thousand).

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.56 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents,

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.70 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.82, down 1 1/4 cents

May 19 Corn closed at $3.88 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures settled the day with front months 6 to 7 1/2 cents higher. Nearby soy meal was up $4.30/ton, with soy oil 25 points higher. A private export sale of 142,500 MT of 18/19 soybeans was reported for delivery to Mexico through the USDA’s daily reporting system. The USDA indicated that 580,824 MT of soybeans were inspected for export during the week ending 8/9. That was a 34.97% drop from the week prior and down 1.7% from this week last year. YTD exports are now 3.19% lower than the same time in 2017. NASS reported that 84% of the US soybean crop was setting pods as of Sunday vs. the average of 72%. The crop was rated at 66% good/ex, down 1% with the Brugler500 dropping 1 point from last week to 369. Wednesday’s NOPA report is expected to show 161.745 mbu of soybeans were crushed during July, which would be well above last July. The USDA expected range for new crop soybean average farm prices is $7.65-10.15, down 35 cents on each end from the July estimate. Friday afternoon’s FSA data showed that 271,082 acres of soybeans were enrolled in prevent plant, 38% lower than August 2017.

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $8.53 1/2, up 7 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $8.57 1/4, up 6 1/2 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.68 3/4, up 7 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $8.91 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents,

Aug 18 Soybean Meal closed at $327.80, up $4.30,

Aug 18 Soybean Oil closed at $28.24, up $0.25

Wheat

Wheat futures ended the Monday session with most KC contracts 17 to 19 cents lower, as CBT and MPLS were down 13 to 16 cents. The weekly Export Inspections report tallied all wheat shipments in the week of August 9 at 462,854 MT. That was 41.73% larger than the previous week but down 9.54% from the same week last year. The winter wheat crop was 96% harvested on 8/12 (96% avg), with the spring wheat crop 35% harvested vs. the normal pace of 27%. Condition ratings were up 1% to 65% gd/ex, as the Brugler500 Index was up 1 to 382. Friday’s USDA report showed a 50 mbu jump to the 18/19 wheat export projection, now at 1.025 bbu. That increased rate of exports has yet to begin. The new crop cash average price range was up 10 cents to $4.60-5.60. A total of 363,208 wheat acres have been enrolled in FSA prevent plant as of August 1, 40.84% fewer than last year. Egypt’s GASC is seeking wheat for late Sep/early Oct delivery, with the tender to close on Tuesday.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.33 1/2, down 13 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.40 3/4, down 19 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.92 3/4, down 16 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures saw losses of 50 cents to $1.10 in most contracts on Monday. Feeder cattle futures were down 40 cents to $1.25. The CME feeder cattle index was steady with the previous day on 8/10, at $151.12. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Monday afternoon. Choice boxes were up $1.82 at $208.43, while Select boxes were $1.89 higher at $199.66. USDA FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 118,000 head on Monday. That is even with the previous week and 3,000 head above the same week in 2017. Most of the cash trade on Friday was around $111, down $3 from the week prior.

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $107.200, down $1.050,

Oct 18 Cattle closed at $108.150, down $1.100,

Dec 18 Cattle closed at $112.000, down $1.100,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $148.650, down $1.250

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $148.450, down $1.075

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $148.950, down $0.525

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures were steady to $1.10 higher in the front contracts on Monday. The last half 2019 contracts were lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.84 on August 9, to $60.04. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 6 cents from the previous day at $71.01 on Monday afternoon. The ham, butt, and belly were all lower. The national base hog carcass value was down $1.21 in the Monday PM report, with the weighted average @ $43.73. USDA estimated hog slaughter at 467,000 head on Monday. That is up 72,000 head from last week and 18,000 head above the same week last year.

Aug 18 Hogs closed at $55.525, up $0.725,

Oct 18 Hogs closed at $51.650, up $0.475

Dec 18 Hogs closed at $48.575, up $1.100

Cotton

Cotton futures posted losses of 234 to 272 in most contracts on Monday. Forecasts for rains in TX and Friday’s increase in estimated US production helped to push the market lower. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed that 77% of the US cotton Crop was setting bolls as of Sunday, with 13% of the crop showing those bolls opening. Conditions were steady in gd/ex ratings at 40%, with the Brugler500 down 5 points to 300 on an increase in the very poor ratings. The USDA tightened the average farm price by 2 cents on each side, to 70-80 cents/lb on Friday. New crop exports for upland cotton are now projected at 15.5 million bales, up 500,000 bales from the July total. FSA data that was released on Friday afternoon shows 121,877 acres of prevent plant as of August 1, which was slightly higher than last year. The Cotlook A index was up 10 points from the previous day at 97.30 cents/lb on August 10.

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 83.140, down 272 points,

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 82.760, down 247 points

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 83.200, down 251 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com