AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are showing losses of 7 to 7 1/2 cents in the nearby contracts, as showers rolled across dry parts of Northern NE and Southern SD this morning. Recent bulls are cashing out rather than risking gains over the weekend. As of this July 13, total export commitments were 16.5% larger than last year at this time. They are currently 99% of the USDA export forecast, lagging the average and last year’s 103%. Consultant Informa updated their 2017 US corn yield projection to 166.2 bushels per acre, down 3.5 bpa from their previous estimate, with production at 13.9 billion bushels. On Friday, China sold 1.873 MMT of 3.366 MMT of 2013 and 2014 corn offered at an auction of state reserves.

Sep 17 Corn is at $3.83 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents,

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.97 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 Corn is at $4.08 1/4, down 7 cents

May 18 Corn is at $4.13, down 7 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are down 6 1/4 to 7 cents at midday, on pre-weekend profit taking. Front month soy meal is $1.40/ton lower, with Aug 17 soy oil 23 points in the red. Total soybean export commitments are now 16.2% greater than last year. As a percent of the USDA projection, they are 106%, ahead of last year and the average of 102%. The Argentine Ag Ministry lowered their 2016/17 soybean production estimates to 55 MMT, down 2MMT from their previous projection. August options expire today, with the highest open interest in the $10 strike price.

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $10.07, down 6 1/4 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $10.11 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $10.20, down 7 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans are at $10.28 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents,

Aug 17 Soybean Meal is at $329.10, down $1.40

Aug 17 Soybean Oil is at $33.74, down $0.23

Wheat

Wheat futures are currently steady to 2 cents lower in the CBT and KC contracts, as MPLS is down 5 to 9 cents in most contracts. Wheat total export commitments are now 36% of the final USDA export projection, vs. last year and the average of 35%. Compared to last year, they are 1.8% larger to this point. Spring wheat yield for 2017 was lowered 2.2 bpa to 38.1 bpa by Informa on Thursday afternoon, with their production estimate dropping 23 mbu to 400 mbu. These are still higher than some other recent trade projections. The US ag attach in Australia lowered their wheat production estimate for the crop to be harvested this fall to 22 MMT, 1.5 MMT lower than the latest USDA projection.

Sep 17 CBOT Wheat is at $5.05 1/2, down 1/4 cent,

Sep 17 KCBT Wheat is at $5.02 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 MGEX Wheat is at $7.69, down 9 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are 72.5 cents to $1.05 higher ahead of this afternoon’s USDA reports. Feeder cattle futures are also $1.225 to $1.40 in the green at midday. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.94 on July 19 to $147.22. Wholesale beef prices were lower in the morning report, with choice boxes down 74 cents at $206.91. Select was 99 cents lower, with an average of $194.59. Week to date estimated FI cattle slaughter was 465,000 head through Thursday, 10,000 below last week and 16,000 above the same week last year. Cash trade has been slow but steady at $118 this week, but sales should pick up today with bids of $118 this morning. Export commitments for beef are current 9.7% larger than this time last year. The USDA will release the Cattle on Feed report for June marketings and placements and July 1 COF, as well as the Cattle inventory report. The trade average guess is for COT to be 2.9% larger than July 2016, with June placements at 6.1% above LY and marketings for June 4.7% larger yr/yr.

Aug 17 Cattle are at $116.925, up $1.050,

Oct 17 Cattle are at $118.050, up $0.975,

Dec 17 Cattle are at $118.825, up $0.725,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle are at $153.500, up $1.225

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle are at $153.650, up $1.325

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle are at $152.250, up $1.400

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures mixed on Friday, with nearby Aug up 42.5 cents and other front months lower. The CME Lean Hog Index for 7/19 was 40 cents lower than the previous day at $92.00. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.07 lower in the Friday morning report, with a weighted average of $102.95. The belly and ham were both slightly higher. The national base hog carcass price was $1.14 lower with a weighted average of $83.07 in this morning’s report. FI hog slaughter through Thursday was estimated at 1,738,000 head, 16,000 head fewer than last week but 38,000 more than the same week in 2016. Total pork export commitments are 7.2% larger than a year ago.

Aug 17 Hogs are at $81.525, up $0.425,

Oct 17 Hogs are at $67.725, down $0.125

Dec 17 Hogs are at $62.450, down $0.500

Cotton

Cotton futures are mostly 42 to 84 points lower on Friday, even as the US Dollar continues to decline. The Cotlook A index for July 20 was at 84.20 cents/lb, steady with the previous day. All upland cotton total export commitments are 108% of the full year WASDE forecast, vs. 104% last year and the average of 106%. Some will be rolled to 2017/18 delivery.The new AWP good today through next Thursday was updated to 64.87 cents/lb, down 60 points. The Seam showed light cash sales of 352 bales at 67.5 cents/lb.

Oct 17 Cotton is at 68.71, down 84 points,

Dec 17 Cotton is at 68.29, down 69 points

Mar 18 Cotton is at 67.93, down 67 points

May 18 Cotton is at 68.410, down 70 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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